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Survey Methodology This year The Daily Star engaged Centre for Strategic Research (CSR) to collect data on behalf of the newspaper as Nielsen Bangladesh, which was the opinion poll partner since its start, was unable to accommodate our assignment due to workload. CSR followed the same international methodology that Nielsen followed and the data was collected from the same areas under strict supervision.
The objective of the Daily Star Opinion Poll 2011 was to assess the current political scenario and public image of different political parties and leaders. The study explored the general perception on politics in Bangladesh according to gender, age group, urban-rural and different constitutional setting, socio-economic and geographic divisions. It was also investigated people's perception and views about the upcoming national parliamentary election. To ensure that the sample properly represents all possible categories, respondents were selected from the following groups: * Urban and rural areas Study Design: The sample for the poll covered the entire population residing in private dwellings units in the country. Administratively, Bangladesh is divided into six divisions. In turn, each division is divided into districts, and each district into upazila. Each urban area in the municipality is divided into wards, and into mahallas within the ward. Each rural area in the upazila is divided into union parishad (UP) and into mouzas within UPs. Therefore, Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were mouza in the rural areas and mohallah in the urban areas. From each PSU, required number of households and respondents were selected randomly. The list of mouzas and mohallas were procured from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Therefore, to capture overall picture of Bangladesh, the poll was carried out in 44 districts, covering all the 7 administrative divisions across Bangladesh. A target number of completed interviews with eligible adult population were set at around 2,520 based on statistical estimation, both from rural and urban areas. The split among these areas were based on national rural-urban population distribution. The survey was quantitative in nature, interviewed at household level and the survey period was December 2011 . Right or wrong direction? The past one year has made quite an impact on popular perception about how the country is being run. A dramatic reversal in perception was noticed as the people thinking that the country is moving in the wrong direction outnumbered those thinking it is moving in the right direction. Of the respondents, 45.1 percent now think the country is going in the wrong direction as against only 31 percent a year ago. On the other hand, 40.5 percent said this time that the country is moving in the right direction against 51 percent last year. This clearly shows people’s negative perception about governance has deepened.
View on economy dims further Quite a large number of people are now thinking that the economy is not doing well. This year, 38.5 percent people said they think the economy is doing bad and will lead to a worse situation. Last year, 28 percent thought so. Moreover, those who do not see much encouraging signs in economy remain static at 24.4 percent. On the other hand, a fewer number of people now think the economy is doing well from last year. 31.3 percent said they see good indications in the economy against 39 percent last year.
Popularity declines further Last year, it was found that the government's popularity had declined. This year's result shows popularity has declined even further. 43 percent people said they are either dissatisfied or very much dissatisfied with the performance of the government. This is much higher than last year's 29 percent. percent said they are either very satisfied or satisfied with the government, last year a huge 48 percent said so.
Inflation remains a worry People are still not satisfied by the way inflation has been addressed. 62 percent said they are dissatisfied by the way the government has addressed the issue of inflation. Last year, it was 61 percent. On the other hand, 26.1 percent said they are satisfied with measures on inflation against last year's 25 percent.
People are fearful of confrontational politics
Not only that, more people now fear (32.9 percent) that politics of violence is coming back than last year (26 percent). 80 percent feel that politics of killing is coming back and over 50 percent expect hartal and extortions to increase. The way the government has handled the opposition over the last one year has also been reflected in the survey as a large number of respondents (45.4 percent) now think that the government has been suppressive as against last year's 27 percent.
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When this government came to power, people's expectation about politics was high as they saw a positive chance in political culture. Now three years down the line, their perception has changed quite a lot as only 29.6 percent say they see any positive change in politics against last year's 42 percent. On the other hand, more people now take a negative view of politics (40.5 percent) than last year (29 percent). 